Fianna Fáil’s Nicola Deacy to outpoll her running mate Ollie Crowe, and Sinn Féin’s Cathal Ó Conchuir to defy the odds and take a seat, are just two possible outcomes thrown up by recent betting odds.
Galway City Central is proving to be the most fascinating and competitive electoral ward in the city, with political pundits viewing Labour’s Billy Cameron, Fine Gael’s Pádraig Conneely, and Fianna Fáil’s Ollie Crowe are certain of taking the first three seats.
However bookmaker John Mulholland feels that first-time candidate Nicola Deacey could also take a seat. In this he agrees with the pundits, but he has gone a step further by saying she could potentially outpoll Cllr Crowe.
Ms Deacy is now Evens to poll better than Cllr Crowe and 1/6 to win the seat. Her odds of topping the poll have gone from 40/1 into 13/2 in the last week.
The other surprising prediction is Mr Mulholland’s view on Sinn Féin Galway City West candidate Cathal Ó Conchuir. Privately SF is pessimistic that he has any real prospect of a seat. However, Mr Mulholland has backed him from 4/1 into 3/1.
While Mr Mulholland acknowledges there is no real SF vote in the ward, the small number of candidates here - nine running for six seats - might see him, against the odds, taking the final seat from a low vote.
Less controversially, Mr Mulholland’s ‘top the poll’ betting are a 6/1 odds that 2009 poll toppers - Donal Lyons, Billie Cameron, and Terry O’Flaherty - will repeat that feat in May.