With the numbers of students in sixth year increasing year on year and application numbers to the CAO at almost 96,000 in 2026, what is the situation as individuals seek a place in an undergraduate course in one of Ireland’s third-level institutions?
Apart from Ireland's demographic profile contributing to increased pressure on CAO places, EU-based applicants who discovered Ireland and its third-level universities, having been locked out of UK universities following Brexit due to the imposition of international fees of £30,000-40,000 a year, are applying in increasing numbers. These number have risen to almost 7,000 in 2026.
Due to the late August CAO offer date, and the very tight accommodation market for students in Ireland, many EU applicants did not accept offers made in round one and those offers were re-offered in round two and subsequent rounds in recent weeks.
However, notwithstanding what happened this year, continental EU applicants will continue to find Ireland's English-speaking third level universities an attractive option. Those already here are the first wave of what I believe will be a growing integration of Ireland’s third-level sector into the wider continental EU education family.
This is not one-way traffic by any means. Some 2,000 Irish students are undertaking their undergraduate degree studies in the Netherlands in 2026, a trend which has been growing strongly for almost 10 years now. Thousands more are scattered across universities in every corner of continental Europe. It transpired in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine that several Irish students were in their medical degree programmes.
Compare the growing attractiveness of Ireland to young Europeans as the English-speaking EU country, with our fellow Irish born on this island in Northern Ireland and those living in the UK, who do not tend to seek or accept places through the CAO in any great numbers. Hopefully, the Taoiseach's 'One Island' initiative will increase the traffic of students back and forth on both sides of the border.
Half of all CAO applicants will accept an offer and start college this September
By next July when we see the final CAO application numbers, will we see up to 100,000 applicants on the hunt for the 45,000 places on offer?
As in previous years, I would expect that 55,000 plus of the 65,000 plus Leaving Cert class of 2027 will seek a place through the CAO.
Add in a further 8,000-10,000 mature applicants over 23 years of age, at least 20,000 applicants from the Leaving Cert class of 2022-2026 and a further 10,000 applicants from outside the state (2,500 Northern Ireland/UK; 7,500 other EU ).
The balance of 8,000-10,000 applicants will be made up of graduates of level 5/6 further education (FE ) programmes and those returning to college having dropped out of a course previously.
What will be the CAO points requirements this year?
The biggest question students and parents will be asking is what impact will this have on the CAO point’s requirements in 2027? The answer is that, nobody knows yet.
The final structure of how the State Exams Commission will administer the 2027 exams is yet to be published, although it is certainly going to continue the gradual unwinding of the enhancement process as in 2026.
How many Leaving Cert graduates from previous years will seek places on courses they missed out on this year because of the higher CAO points requirements?
Furthermore, with over 4,500 Leaving Cert students securing an upgraded result in late September, following the re-marking of at least one leaving cert subject, there are a large number of places reserved for those students who could not be accommodated in the current academic year, but have now been guaranteed a place on their preferred course in 2027.
How many additional places will the Minister of Further and Higher Education fund this year?
How much capacity exists within the infrastructure of our colleges to facilitate further expansion of CAO places?
Some course places are easier to create than others. Programmes with laboratory or professional placements are far more difficult to create than programmes predominantly delivered through lecture and tutorial format.
For example, the introduction of two new Veterinary programmes in the North-West and South-East in 2026, saw an overall easing of the high CAO points requirements for this discipline.
Will the heightened awareness of opportunities within further education, apprenticeships and traineeships take some of the pressure off the demand for CAO places?
My gut instinct is that when all the factors outlined above play out, CAO points requirements will not drop back significantly from 2026 levels, given the very high numbers of students currently in senior cycle in our second level schools.
