With only a few days to go to the start of Galway race week, now is an opportune time to look at the recent history of the week’s two major races, to help us identify horses who fit the profile of likely winners.
The Tote Galway Plate
In the last ten years, four seven-year-olds have won the race, three eight-year-olds, two horses aged 6 and one aged 9 have also been victorious. The minimum weight carried to victory over this time period was 9-11, carried by Ash Tree Meadow in 2023. The maximum weight carried to victory was the 11-10 carried by Western Fold in 2025. Six of the last ten winners carried between 10-2 and 10-13. With two of the last four winners carrying 11-07 or more, and the other two carrying 10-04 and 09-11, it is safe to say there is no obvious weight carrying trend in trying to select the 2026 winner. As outlined above, trying to reduce the number of likely contenders based on the age of recent winners is also of little use, as the vast bulk of runners fall in the 6 to 8 year old category.
The odds of the winners varied from Royal Rendezvous, the 5/1 favourite in 2021 to Clarcam, the 33/1 winner in 2018. No other favourite obliged in the period under review.
As we work our way through the different trends categories, the most striking, and possibly helpful, one is in the list of winning trainers. Gordon Elliott has trained five of the last ten winners, making him, by far, the most successful trainer of modern times in the race. At this stage, he has six of the initial thirty two entries. Three Card Brag is the highest rated of Elliott’s entries, but the one I like most from his six entries is Nowwhatdoyouthink. The stable are expecting a very good showing from this 10/1 shot.
Donagh Meyler and Danny Gilligan have both ridden the winner twice in the last decade and no other jockey has ridden the winner of the race on more than one occasion in this period.
Top of the market at this stage is Funiculi Funnicula, at odds of 5/1 for the Willie Mullins stable. Mullins dominance of NH racing is not reflected in his record in this race, and he has trained the winner on only one occasion, Royal Rendezvous in 2021. With eight initial entries at this stage, Mullins clearly intends to throw a number of darts in the hope that one may stick. Stable whispers point to the favourite, who is expected to relish the ground, trip and track. A Mullins outsider to consider, based on his recent home work, is Spread Boss Ted, who is expected to outrun his odds of 16/1.
Others to consider in what looks a wide open renewal of the festival showpiece are the Henry de Bromhead trained Downmexicoway, Nouvotic and Gorgeous Tom. De Bromhead, having twice trained the race winner, looks to have a particularly strong entry. It will be interesting to see the selection of stable jockey, Darragh O’Keeffe, and I’ll be holding off on any bets until I see his chosen mount. Ol Man Dingle and Jesse Evans may also reward each way backers.
The Guinness Galway Hurdle
In the last ten years, three seven-year-olds have won the race, one six-year-old, two horses aged 5, one aged 9, one 10 year old, and two four-year-olds. The minimum weight carried to victory over this time period was 10-9, the weight carried by Tigress River in 2017. The maximum weight carried to victory was the 11-10 carried by both Aramon and Sadlier, in 2020 and 2021 resp. Seven of the last ten winners carried over 11 stone to victory, and three carried under 11 stone.
The odds of the winners varied from 2022 winner, Tudor City, at 22/1 to the lowest prices winners who started at odds of 9/2.
Willie Mullins has an exceptional record in the race, having trained five of the last ten winners. Unlike the Galway Plate, for which he is the leading trainer of modern times, Gordon Elliott has had almost 30 runners in the last twenty renewals of the Galway Hurdle, with his only success coming last year when Ndaawi was awarded the race in the stewards’ room.
With the exception of Patrick Mullins, who has ridden three of the last ten winners, no jockey has ridden the winner of the race on more than one occasion in the last decade.
With his impressive recent record, all analysis of the race must begin with horses trained by Willie Mullins, and his most likely contenders are Murcia and Roc Dino. The latter is still improving and expected to go very close in Thursday’s highlight.
I expect Joseph O’Brien, who has a very good record in the race, to go close with Puturhandstogether, who started 4/1 favourite for last year’s contest.
Now that Gordon Elliott has broken his duck in the race, as so often happens, I expect him to mount a serious challenge again this year with El Cairos and Ndaawi, and I expect last year’s winner to follow his previous victory in next week’s renewal, this time with no assistance required from the stewards’ room. At 10/1, he represents terrific each way value, and I cannot see him finishing out of the first four.
