It was supposed to be a battle for the soul of Galway West, but it became a clash in Connemara, then sub plots in the city, as Fine Gael strapped in for a rare government party win in a by-election where every vote counted.
There were 11 counts overall over the weekend, which Independent Ireland led until the tenth, before a turbo boost from Galway’s resurgent Labour Party denied them a seat. Fine Gael supporters at the count centre whooped like passengers relieved to summit a rollercoaster after slow ascent, then hurtle downhill to swift finale.
Anecdotally, it seems many of the 48,176 Galwegians who bothered to cast a ballot last week, used their votes strategically to deny right-wing Independent Ireland’s democratic attempt to ‘steal’ Catherine Connolly’s left-wing seat. Ironically, perhaps, centre right Fine Gael clinched it.
The other way of looking at it, is that the constituency’s natural balance is restored, with Galway West now boasting a Connemara TD again, after the aberration of the 2024 general election, in which no candidate hailing from Iar Connacht was elected for the first time in living memory.
Across Galway, 56,288 voters did not deign to visit their local polling station for a few minutes last Friday, so their views are omitted from the historical record.
Councillor Noel Thomas (II ) topped the poll with a whopping 10,007 first preference votes – enough to almost guarantee him a seat in a general election. Senator Seán Kyne (FG ) was only 360 votes behind him, winning 9,647 Number 1s.
Yet it was, as expected, a tale of two transfers: Kyne ultimately took the seat thanks to votes he acknowledged he “borrowed” from elsewhere; Thomas should have transferred better for a poll-topper, and ultimately paid the price, with his third failure to enter the Oireachtas in two years after a failed Senate bid last year.
In saying that though, Thomas did receive just over 6,500 transfers at the end of two long days of counting – more than many pundits predicted. But it was Kyne who passed him on the home stretch, with a whopping 9,571 transfer votes overall.
The quota for taking the seat vacated by President Catherine Connolly was 23,947 votes, and no candidate made it.
After a campaign likely to be studied by politicos for future initiatives, Labour’s Councillor Helen Ogbu stunned many with passing half this target, scoring 12,960 at the end of the day – more than any of the five winning candidates in the 2024 general election. Her old-fashioned, on-foot canvasses and doorstep conversations, allied with clever social media, cancelled out a vile online campaign against her, which circulated odious rumours in the final few days before polls opened last Friday, May 22.
It’s the geography, stupid
Thomas went home with a truly massive 16,519 votes, yet it was Kyne who came closest to the quota, with enough votes for two candidates at a ‘regular’ general election: 19,218 votes overall. His constituency colleague, Education Minister Hildegarde Naughton (FG ), will have to chew on that, although it is fair to say Kyne borrowed the – likely temporary – support of her loyal, Oranmore base.
A big chunk of Kyne’s votes – 6,830 altogether – came from Ogbu (4,249 ), and Fianna Fáil’s Cillian Keane (2,581 ). Keane topped tallies across many boxes opened in eastern Galway West. Labour and Fianna Fáil transfers thus comprised 36 per cent of Kyne’s final total.
Thomas, himself a former Fianna Fáiler, could not compete with these numbers, despite winning transfers from surprising sources, including 552 from the Social Democrats’ Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, and 701 from Sinn Féin’s Mark Lohan. He won only 423 from Keane’s pivotal elimination by the eighth count.
These transfers to Thomas – although not enough to keep Kyne at bay at the end, did cause concern to Fine Gael supporters at the count in Salthill’s Galway Lawn Tennis Club, where some – perhaps foolish to tempt fate – were celebrating a bit too early in some observers’ eyes.
The 2024 general election in Galway West was Noel v Noel – Noel Thomas almost unseating Noel Grealish (RIG ), but in 2026, at least in Connemara, it was Thomas v Thomas – Noel Thomas dominating areas of south Connemara, while Councillor Thomas Welby (Ind ) took huge chunks of the north, including Cong, Clonbur and parts of Oughterard.
Voters cast their Number 1s for Noel Thomas from the far west of County Galway, all the way through Carraroe, Inverin, and Spiddal, then over the River Corrib into Annaghdown, around Corrandulla, Claregalway, Carnmore and into the city’s northeastern suburbs of Ballybrit and Mervue.
Seán Kyne, however, held Clifden, Leenaun, his native Moycullen, and swathes of populous, semi-rural and suburban territory south of the N59 Galway-Clifden Road, including Barna, Furbo and the vast, western sprawl of Knocknacarra. He did well in an enclave surrounded by Independent Ireland support in the northeast of the constituency, around Lackagh, and within the east side of the city, in leafy Renmore.
Galway city’s single vote
Taking Galway city as a whole, Kyne beat third-placed Helen Ogbu by just one, single, solitary first preference vote: 3,534 versus 3,533, according to Fine Gael tallies.
Labour, and independent Mike Cubbard (Ind ), dominated most of Galway city, with Ogbu coming out on top in Roscam, Doughiska, and Murrough in the east, and parts of Salthill, Newcastle, Taylors Hill, Shantalla, Terryland, Ballinfoyle and Castlegar elsewhere.
Councillor Cubbard carved the Claddagh out of the city centre for himself, and did well in Westside, Letteragh, Bushypark and surrounding areas. A lingering question of this by-election remains: if Cubbard had been invited to join the Vote Left Transfer Left coalition, which included Labour, Sinn Féin, Social Democrats, Green Party, People Before Profit and fellow independent Sheila Garrity, would more of his 3,601 valid transfers gone to left-wing candidates?
Cubbard, the current mayor of Galway city, sent 1,043 votes to Councillor Ogbu – likely the next mayor of the city – but also 950 to Thomas, 674 to Kyne, 529 to Nic Fhionnlaoich, and 405 to Cillian Keane (FF ). Alone, without party support, 40-year-old Cubbard was eliminated on the seventh count with 4,737 votes, just 12 votes – literally only a dozen – behind Fianna Fáil, on 4,749 at that stage, with 100 years of tradition behind it, and canvass support from paid employees, cabinet ministers and even the taoiseach.
These geographic analyses are made from a survey of tallies carried out by volunteers affiliated with a number of political parties, so must come with a health warning, but they do usually provide an accurate, if not exact, indication of where votes landed, and for whom.
In the heel of the hunt, Seán Kyne took the seat ‘home’ to Connemara, after beating his near neighbours Welby and Thomas.
He did this with strong support from his home place, and rural voters, but also from the more salubrious suburbs of Galway city, and huge transfers from mostly urban, Labour voters. Kyne was boosted by votes from his party colleague, Hildegarde Naughton, who is based in the eastern part of the constituency, alongside Fianna Fáil’s bright young thing from Maree, Cillian Keane.
Kyne says he must do better than his previous, nine year stint as a Galway TD, from 2011 to 2020. But if and when he attempts to defend this newly won seat, the social geography of Galway remains, shaping its politics, and its future, as it has its past.
Funded by the Local Democracy Reporting Scheme.
